Somalia
KenyaKey figures
Who is fighting
Federal Government of Somalia and international partners
- Somali National Army and police
- Clan militias (Ma'awisley)
- AUSSOM (Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Egypt)
- United States (AFRICOM airstrikes, ~350 personnel)
- Turkey (training, drones)
- Puntland and Jubaland forces (against al-Shabaab, but at odds with Mogadishu)
- United States
- Turkey
- United Kingdom
- European Union
- Egypt
- Qatar
- United Arab Emirates (regional forces)
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen
- Al-Shabaab (including the Amniyat intelligence wing)
- Al-Qaeda
- Houthis (weapons links reported by UN monitors)
Islamic State Somalia Province (ISIS-Somalia)
- ISIS-Somalia (Abdulqadir Mumin)
- Islamic State
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
Somalia has lacked an effective central government since 1991. Al-Shabaab emerged from the Islamic Courts Union after Ethiopia's 2006 intervention and became the dominant insurgent force once Ethiopia withdrew in January 2009. It held Mogadishu until 2011 and still governs large rural areas, taxes commerce, and carries out mass-casualty bombings (the October 2017 Mogadishu truck bomb killed over 500) and attacks in Kenya. AU peacekeepers (AMISOM, then ATMIS, and since January 2025 AUSSOM with about 11,900 personnel) have lost more than 3,500 soldiers since 2007.
A 2022-2023 offensive with clan militias ('Ma'awisley') recaptured parts of central Somalia, but al-Shabaab counter-offensives in 2025 took back Middle and Lower Shabelle districts, at one point threatening Mogadishu's outskirts. The government and Ugandan AUSSOM troops launched 'Operation Rolling Thunder' in Lower Shabelle in March 2026 and the US conducted dozens of airstrikes (63 confirmed by mid-2026), but Crisis Group describes territorial control as essentially unchanged since 2022.
Politics now compound the war. Parliament extended presidential and parliamentary terms in March 2026; when the president's mandate expired on 15 May, the opposition Somali Future Council declared him illegitimate and on 3-5 June government forces fought opposition-aligned militias in Mogadishu (UNHCR: 13 killed, 189 injured, 12,500 households displaced). South West State cut ties with Mogadishu in March and federal troops took Baidoa; Puntland seized a federal camp near Galkayo in August. Elections are now scheduled for April-May 2027. The United States will end logistical support for AUSSOM after December 2026 and opposes UN-assessed funding, raising fears of the mission's collapse.
ISIS-Somalia, a few hundred to over 1,000 fighters, many foreign, in Puntland's Bari region, has served as a financial hub for the Islamic State. Puntland's 'Operation Hilaac' (from November 2024) with US airstrikes cleared most of its mountain bases by late 2025, but AFRICOM confirmed in February 2026 that leader Abdulqadir Mumin remains in Somalia. Al-Shabaab also stepped up cross-border attacks in Kenya's Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Lamu counties in 2026 (at least 25 incidents; five security personnel killed on 28 July).
Recent developments
- 15 October 2026Elections scheduled for April-May 2027; days earlier the prime minister denied paying al-Shabaab to halt attacks on Mogadishu or holding direct talks with the group. source ↗
- 1 October 2026NISA says it killed Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow, former head of al-Shabaab's Amniyat wing, in Jilib with international partners. source ↗
- 30 September 2026Ethiopia reportedly plans to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia for its own war; Mogadishu says it was not informed. The US will end logistical support for AUSSOM after December 2026. source ↗
- 5 August 2026Puntland forces capture a federal camp near Galkayo after more than an hour of fighting. source ↗
- 28 July 2026Al-Shabaab ambush near Wantey Dam, Mandera, kills five Kenyan security personnel; Kenya records at least 25 cross-border incidents in 2026. source ↗
- 5 June 2026Mogadishu clashes between government forces and opposition-aligned militias end after mediation; UNHCR counts 13 dead and 12,500 households displaced. source ↗
- 14 May 2026Al-Shabaab ambush on a federal convoy in Baidoa kills two senior commanders; roads around the town remain under militant control. source ↗
Timeline
- 28 December 2006Ethiopian forces oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu; al-Shabaab emerges as the main insurgent group.
- 6 August 2011Al-Shabaab withdraws from Mogadishu under AMISOM pressure.
- 14 October 2017Truck bombing in Mogadishu kills more than 500 people.
- 23 August 2022Government and clan militias launch an offensive that retakes parts of Hiiraan and Galmudug.
- 6 June 2023Al-Shabaab attack on an AU base at Bulo Marer kills 54 Ugandan soldiers.
- 1 November 2024Puntland launches 'Operation Hilaac' against ISIS-Somalia in the Cal Miskaad mountains.
- 1 January 2025AUSSOM replaces ATMIS with about 11,900 personnel.
- 1 March 2025Al-Shabaab's Shabelle offensive retakes districts captured by the government in 2022-2023.
- 1 March 2026Somali and Ugandan forces launch 'Operation Rolling Thunder' in Lower Shabelle.
- 30 March 2026Federal forces take Baidoa after South West State cut ties with Mogadishu.
- 15 May 2026President Mohamud's mandate expires; the opposition rejects the parliamentary extension to 2027.
- 3 June 2026Government forces and opposition militias fight for two days in Mogadishu; 13 killed, 189 injured (UNHCR).
- 5 August 2026Puntland forces seize a federal-held camp near Galkayo.
- 15 October 2026Electoral commission sets parliamentary elections for April 2027 and presidential elections for May 2027.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 76,040 | – | ACLED-recorded fatalities in Somalia from all actors, 2009 to September 2024 (Wikipedia compilation citing ACLED); direct deaths only. Over 3,500 AU peacekeepers have died since 2007. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Combatants killed | 3,500 | – | AU peacekeepers killed since 2007 only; Somali army and al-Shabaab losses are not credibly counted (government claims 1,650 militants killed August-October 2026). cfr.org ↗ |
| Civilians killed | 47 | – | ACLED: at least 47 civilians killed by al-Shabaab in March 2026 alone; no annual total retrieved. HRW and the UN document hundreds of civilian deaths a year from al-Shabaab attacks and from government and partner airstrikes. acleddata.com ↗ |
| Wounded | 189 | – | Injured in the June 2026 Mogadishu clashes only (UNHCR); no national figure. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | – | – | No verified total; indicative incidents: >200 killed in December 2025 operations, 27 militants killed 14 April 2026, 13 killed in Mogadishu clashes 3-5 June 2026, government claims 1,650 militants killed August-October 2026. acleddata.com ↗ |
| Internally displaced | 3,350,000 | 3,800,000 | Low = sum of UNHCR regional IDP figures (30 September 2026); high = IRC figure for 2024. Displacement is driven by conflict, drought and floods combined. data.unhcr.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | – | – | Somali refugees abroad number in the high hundreds of thousands (Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen); no current UNHCR total retrieved. data.unhcr.org ↗ |
Intensity classification: ACLED recorded more than 2,300 political-violence events involving al-Shabaab in January-June 2026; single incidents in December 2025 killed over 200 (65+ militants in one airstrike, 44 including 30 civilians in Lower Shabelle, ~100 fighters claimed in Lower Juba); the government claims 1,650 militants killed between August and October 2026 (unverified). Annual fatalities run into the thousands, but a verified 12-month total was not retrieved..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Somalia: al-Shabaab insurgency (with ISIS-Somalia in Puntland)?
Federal Government of Somalia and international partners (Somali National Army and police, Clan militias (Ma'awisley), AUSSOM (Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Egypt), United States (AFRICOM airstrikes, ~350 personnel), …), supported by United States, Turkey, United Kingdom, European Union; against Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab (including the Amniyat intelligence wing)), supported by Al-Qaeda, Houthis (weapons links reported by UN monitors); against Islamic State Somalia Province (ISIS-Somalia) (ISIS-Somalia (Abdulqadir Mumin)), supported by Islamic State.
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 76,040+ killed as of 30 September 2026. ACLED-recorded fatalities in Somalia from all actors, 2009 to September 2024 (Wikipedia compilation citing ACLED); direct deaths only. Over 3,500 AU peacekeepers have died since 2007. Civilian deaths are put at 47+. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Somalia: al-Shabaab insurgency (with ISIS-Somalia in Puntland) still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda's East African affiliate, controls much of rural southern and central Somalia and has regained ground lost in the 2022-2023 government offensive; the federal government, backed by the AU mission AUSSOM and US airstrikes, holds the cities. In 2026 the war is in stalemate while the state itself fractures: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's contested term extension triggered deadly clashes in Mogadishu in June, South West State and Puntland have broken with Mogadishu, AUSSOM faces a funding collapse after 2026, and Ethiopia plans to withdraw 3,000 troops. ISIS-Somalia, based in Puntland's Cal Miskaad mountains, has been reduced by a Puntland-US campaign but its leader remains at large.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 31 January 2009, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1991 — 17 years, 8 months ago.
Sources
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker — Al-Shabaab in Somalia cfr.org
- Crisis Group — New Chapter, Same Stalemate: Somalia's War with Al-Shabaab crisisgroup.org
- EUAA — Somalia security situation (May 2026, ACLED-based) euaa.europa.eu
- UNHCR — Somalia data portal data.unhcr.org
- HRW World Report 2026 — Somalia hrw.org
- New America — AFRICOM strikes in Somalia 2026 newamerica.org
- Wikipedia — Somali Civil War (2009–present) en.wikipedia.org
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Glostats. (2026). Somalia: al-Shabaab insurgency: Casualties & Timeline (2026). Retrieved October 19, 2026, from https://glostats.com/conflicts/somalia-al-shabaab-insurgency/<a href="https://glostats.com/conflicts/somalia-al-shabaab-insurgency/">Somalia: al-Shabaab insurgency: Casualties & Timeline (2026)</a> — GlostatsFigures on this page may be quoted, charted or republished as long as the page is credited with a link. Terms · Download the data as CSV · Embed a live counter.
This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-19. How this tracker works.