Home Conflicts Africa Mali war (JNIM, Islamic State Sahel and Azawad rebels vs the junta and Russia's Africa Corps)

Mali war (JNIM, Islamic State Sahel and Azawad rebels vs the junta and Russia's Africa Corps)

Active fighting War Civil war Since 16 January 2012 Africa

Mali's 14-year war escalated sharply on 25 April 2026 when the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks on Bamako, Kati, Gao, Sévaré, Mopti and Kidal, killing the defence minister and forcing the army and Russia's Africa Corps out of most of the Kidal region. JNIM has since blockaded fuel and road traffic into Bamako, overran the Dioura base in September (100+ soldiers killed), and continues to attack Africa Corps units; the army, with Russian air support, retook Kidal on 6 October 2026 after the FLA withdrew.

Key figures

Estimates as of 6 October 2026 · reviewed 19 October 2026
Total killed (cumulative)
20,000+
as of 6 October 2026
Deaths, last 12 months
1,000+
recorded fatalities
Internally displaced
230,000+
as of 6 October 2026
Refugees abroad
144,000+
as of 6 October 2026
Duration
14 years, 9 months
since 16 January 2012
Read these numbers carefully. They are compiled from the sources listed below (UN agencies, conflict-data projects such as UCDP and ACLED, governments, NGOs and news organisations) whose methods differ — some count only documented deaths, others estimate excess mortality. Ranges show the spread between sources; a single figure means only one credible estimate exists. Nothing on this page is a live counter: figures change only when the page is reviewed and rebuilt. For scale, the mid-point of the last-12-months range works out to roughly 2.7 deaths per day on average over the past year — an average, not a current rate. Overall confidence in the casualty picture: low.

Who is fighting

Parties, allies and estimated forces

Government of Mali (transitional military government) and allies

Forces & groups
  • Malian Armed Forces (FAMa)
  • Russia's Africa Corps (ex-Wagner)
  • Dozo and Dan Na Ambassagou militias
  • Alliance of Sahel States partners (Burkina Faso, Niger air support)
External support
  • Russia
  • Turkey (drones)
  • China
  • Algeria (mediation; reported support in 2026)
  • United States (renewed security cooperation, 2026)
Estimated strength
FAMa ≈ 41,000 (most recent estimate); Africa Corps contingent in the low thousands (Wagner had ~1,000-2,000 in 2022-2024); no verified 2026 figure source ↗

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

Forces & groups
  • JNIM (Iyad Ag Ghali, Amadou Koufa)
  • Katiba Macina
External support
  • Al-Qaeda
Estimated strength
several thousand to ~10,000 fighters across the Sahel (Crisis Group: 'several thousand'; Africa Center: 6,000-7,000 network-wide; one 2026 estimate ~10,000) source ↗

Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)

Forces & groups
  • FLA (Bilal Ag Acherif), successor to the CSP-DPA coalition of Tuareg and Arab movements
External support
  • Ukraine (intelligence/training alleged by Mali, 2024)
Estimated strength
unknown; a few thousand fighters (estimate) source ↗

Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP)

Forces & groups
  • Islamic State Sahel Province
External support
  • Islamic State
Estimated strength
unknown; strongest in the Ménaka-Gao-Tillabéri tri-border area source ↗

Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.

Background

Origins, phases and the current situation

A Tuareg rebellion and jihadist takeover of northern Mali in 2012 triggered a French intervention (2013), a UN mission (MINUSMA) and the 2015 Algiers peace accord with Tuareg-led separatist groups. Jihadist groups regrouped as JNIM (al-Qaeda, 2017) and the Islamic State Sahel Province, spreading the war into central Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger. Coups in 2020 and 2021 brought Col. Assimi Goïta to power; the junta expelled France (2022) and MINUSMA (2023), hired Wagner (later Russia's Africa Corps), scrapped the Algiers accord and retook Kidal in November 2023. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States and left ECOWAS in January 2025.

JNIM declared a fuel blockade of Bamako in September 2025 and, after a lull, launched its largest offensive on 25 April 2026 together with the FLA (the separatists' successor front formed in late 2024). A car bomb killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara at Kati; the FLA retook Kidal, Tessalit and Aguelhok as Africa Corps withdrew under Algerian-mediated terms; IS Sahel briefly took Labbezanga. JNIM announced a full blockade of Bamako on 28 April and in May turned on Dozo hunter militias in Mopti and Ségou; Goïta made himself defence minister. The army recaptured Anéfis in July at heavy cost, JNIM seized Kouakourou and attacked San, and on 10 September overran the Dioura camp, killing more than 100 soldiers and five Russians and capturing 92. Prisoner exchanges with the FLA freed over 140 soldiers in August.

On 6 October 2026 the FLA announced a 'strategic withdrawal' from Kidal, blaming Africa Corps air power, and the army re-entered the town. The Bamako blockade continues: Mali imports 95% of its fuel by road and more than 300 tankers have been destroyed; convoys move only under escort. Amnesty International has documented war crimes by Malian soldiers and Wagner against civilians (at least 34 killed in seven incidents, 2023-2025); ACLED data show Burkinabe and Malian forces killing more civilians than the jihadists in 2025.

Recent developments

Latest events · newest first

Timeline

Key events since 16 January 2012

Casualties and displacement in detail

Low and high estimates with their sources
MeasureLowHighWhat the figure covers · source
Total killed (cumulative)20,000–Approximate total killed since 2012 (Wikipedia compilation); includes 58 French, 311 UN and 127+ Wagner personnel. ACLED's three-country Sahel total exceeded 10,000 in January-November 2025 alone.
en.wikipedia.org ↗
Combatants killed––Not published by the junta. Documented 2026 losses include ~23 at Kati (25 April), ~30 at Anéfis (July), 50 in a convoy ambush (17 July), 100+ at Dioura (10 September) and at least 7 incl. Russians near Niono (27 September).
en.wikipedia.org ↗
Civilians killed––No total; Amnesty documented at least 34 civilians killed by Malian soldiers and Wagner in seven incidents (2023-2025); ACLED found state forces killed more civilians than jihadists in 2025.
acleddata.com ↗
Wounded––Not recorded.
en.wikipedia.org ↗
Deaths in the last 12 months1,000–Conservative floor from documented 2026 incident tolls (see militaryKilled) plus verified civilian deaths; the true figure is far higher. ACLED counted over 10,000 deaths across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in January-November 2025.
acleddata.com ↗
Internally displaced230,000–~230,000 IDPs (undated compilation); IOM figures in 2024-2025 were around 350,000-400,000 and the 2026 offensives emptied towns such as Kouakourou.
en.wikipedia.org ↗
Refugees abroad144,000–Malian refugees abroad, mainly in Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso (undated compilation).
en.wikipedia.org ↗

Intensity classification: ACLED recorded over 10,000 deaths from political violence across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger between 1 January and 28 November 2025; no Mali-only 2026 total is published. Documented 2026 incidents in Mali alone (Kati 23; Anéfis ~130; a convoy ambush 50; Dioura 100+ soldiers; San, Niono and others) exceed 1,000 even before unverified claims of 1,000+ insurgents killed by Africa Corps..

Countries affected

Live population · open a country for its full profile

Frequently asked questions

Who is fighting in the Mali war (JNIM, Islamic State Sahel and Azawad rebels vs the junta and Russia's Africa Corps)?

Government of Mali (transitional military government) and allies (Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), Russia's Africa Corps (ex-Wagner), Dozo and Dan Na Ambassagou militias, Alliance of Sahel States partners (Burkina Faso, Niger air support)), supported by Russia, Turkey (drones), China, Algeria (mediation; reported support in 2026); against Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) (JNIM (Iyad Ag Ghali, Amadou Koufa), Katiba Macina), supported by Al-Qaeda; against Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) (FLA (Bilal Ag Acherif), successor to the CSP-DPA coalition of Tuareg and Arab movements), supported by Ukraine (intelligence/training alleged by Mali, 2024); against Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) (Islamic State Sahel Province), supported by Islamic State.

How many people have been killed?

Estimates range from 20,000+ killed as of 6 October 2026. Approximate total killed since 2012 (Wikipedia compilation); includes 58 French, 311 UN and 127+ Wagner personnel. ACLED's three-country Sahel total exceeded 10,000 in January-November 2025 alone. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.

Is the Mali war (JNIM, Islamic State Sahel and Azawad rebels vs the junta and Russia's Africa Corps) still ongoing in 2026?

Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — Mali's 14-year war escalated sharply on 25 April 2026 when the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks on Bamako, Kati, Gao, Sévaré, Mopti and Kidal, killing the defence minister and forcing the army and Russia's Africa Corps out of most of the Kidal region. JNIM has since blockaded fuel and road traffic into Bamako, overran the Dioura base in September (100+ soldiers killed), and continues to attack Africa Corps units; the army, with Russian air support, retook Kidal on 6 October 2026 after the FLA withdrew.

When did it start?

The current phase began on 16 January 2012, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1990 — 14 years, 9 months ago.

Sources

Where these figures come from
  1. Wikipedia — 2026 Mali offensives en.wikipedia.org
  2. CFR Global Conflict Tracker — Violent extremism in the Sahel cfr.org
  3. ACLED — Economic warfare escalates as militants expand beyond the Sahel acleddata.com
  4. ACLED — Battle for Anéfis (April 2026) acleddata.com
  5. Le Monde — 'We are blocking Bamako' (April 2026) lemonde.fr
  6. Crisis Group — JNIM and the dilemma of expansion beyond the Sahel crisisgroup.org
  7. Wikipedia — Mali War en.wikipedia.org

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APAGlostats. (2026). Mali war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026). Retrieved October 20, 2026, from https://glostats.com/conflicts/mali-jihadist-and-azawad-war/
HTML<a href="https://glostats.com/conflicts/mali-jihadist-and-azawad-war/">Mali war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026)</a> — Glostats

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This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-20. How this tracker works.