EthiopiaKey figures
Who is fighting
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
- Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF)
- Amhara regional forces and riot police
- Tigray Peace Force (pro-government Tigrayan militia)
- Afar regional forces
Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS)
- Tigray People's Liberation Front / Tigray Defence Forces
- Amhara Fano National Movement
- Oromo Liberation Army
- Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz armed groups
- ONLF (membership disputed)
- Eritrea (alleged by Ethiopia; denied)
- Sudan and Egypt (alleged by Ethiopia; denied)
Eritrea
- Eritrean Defence Forces
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
The Tigray war of November 2020-November 2022 between the federal government (with Eritrean and Amhara forces) and the TPLF killed an estimated 600,000 people and ended with the Pretoria Agreement. The agreement was only partly implemented: Eritrean troops and Amhara forces stayed in disputed Western Tigray, the promised referendum never happened, and the TPLF split in 2024 between its hard-line leadership and the federally backed Tigray Interim Administration.
In 2025 the TPLF faction took control of Mekelle's institutions, was deregistered as a party in May, and drew closer to Eritrea, Ethiopia's former ally turned adversary as Abiy pressed claims for sea access via Assab. Clashes between the TPLF/Tigray Defence Forces and the army began in early 2026; the TDF seized Nirak in Amhara's Wag Hamra zone in April; by mid-July the TPLF declared Pretoria 'effectively dead' and on 1 August fighting resumed. Abiy's Prosperity Party won the June 2026 election by a landslide amid Fano and OLA attacks on polling day.
On 20 September 2026 the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the OLA and Afar, Benishangul and other groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS), pledging to overthrow the government. After drone strikes on their positions, including a school in Alamata, the coalition attacked on 23 September along the Kobo-Tumuga front and the Afar-Amhara border, taking the Axum, Shire and Mekelle airports. The army counter-attacked, retook Soqota and Alamata, entered Mekelle on 3-4 October after the TDF withdrew, and advanced to Adigrat, Adwa, Aksum and Zalambessa. Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats on 1 October; Eritrea cut ties, called the escalation a 'declaration of war' and asked the UN Security Council to act; ACLED and witnesses reported Eritrean troops entering Tigray on 7 October and withdrawing after drone strikes. On 16 October Abiy named an interim government for Tigray. The UN says displacement is under way across central, north-western and eastern Tigray but verified figures are not yet available.
Recent developments
- 16 October 2026Abiy names an interim administration for Tigray; UN Security Council holds closed consultations on the Horn of Africa (12 October). source ↗
- 15 October 2026Federal forces and Tigray Peace Force fighters enter Aksum; TPLF-linked fighters remain in surrounding mountains; US Secretary of State Rubio urges de-escalation in a call with Abiy. source ↗
- 13 October 2026Ethiopian troops with tanks and heavy weapons enter Zalambessa on the Eritrean border, stoking fears of interstate war. source ↗
- 10 October 2026UN Secretary-General calls for an immediate end to fighting and voices deep concern at reports of Eritrean forces in Ethiopia; Eritrea asks the Security Council to condemn Ethiopia. source ↗
- 4 October 2026Government forces seize Mekelle after Tigrayan rebels abandon the regional capital. source ↗
- 1 October 2026Eritrea severs diplomatic ties with Ethiopia after the expulsion of its diplomats. source ↗
- 21 September 2026Seven Ethiopian armed groups announce an anti-government alliance. source ↗
Timeline
- 4 November 2020Tigray war begins between federal forces (with Eritrea) and the TPLF.
- 2 November 2022Pretoria Agreement ends the Tigray war after an estimated 600,000 deaths.
- 14 May 2025Electoral board deregisters the TPLF after its hard-line faction takes over Tigray's institutions.
- 22 April 2026Tigray Defence Forces and Agew militias seize Nirak in Amhara's Wag Hamra zone; drone strikes fail to dislodge them.
- 1 June 2026Abiy's Prosperity Party wins the general election; Fano and OLA attack across Amhara and Oromia on polling day.
- 15 July 2026TPLF declares the Pretoria Agreement 'effectively dead'; ENDF-TPLF fighting resumes on 1 August.
- 20 August 2026ENDF airstrike on Mekelle wounds 13 civilians; HRW calls it unlawfully indiscriminate.
- 20 September 2026Seven armed groups led by the TPLF announce the EPFAS coalition to overthrow Abiy's government.
- 22 September 2026ENDF drone strike on a school in Alamata kills 14 civilians.
- 23 September 2026EPFAS launches its offensive; rebels seize the Axum, Shire and Mekelle airports and towns in Afar.
- 28 September 2026ENDF retakes Soqota and Alamata; at least 52 civilians reported killed in Alamata.
- 1 October 2026Ethiopia expels 10 Eritrean diplomats; Eritrea severs all diplomatic ties; rebel drones hit military air facilities in Addis Ababa.
- 4 October 2026Federal forces enter Mekelle after the TDF withdraws; Abiy is sworn in for a new term on 5 October.
- 7 October 2026Eritrean troops reported entering Tigray; ENDF drone strikes hit them around Adigrat; Eritrean forces withdraw via Zalambessa by 10-11 October.
- 13 October 2026ENDF tanks reach Zalambessa on the Eritrean border; federal forces enter Aksum on 15 October.
- 16 October 2026Abiy announces an interim government for Tigray and elections within six months.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 338 | – | Ethiopian government figure of 272 killed (plus 260 wounded) in the first weeks, plus at least 66 civilians killed in Alamata; figures come from the parties and are unverified. The 2020-2022 Tigray war is separately estimated at ~600,000 deaths. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Combatants killed | 272 | – | Government-reported figure, side not clearly specified; rebel losses unknown. A pro-government militia claims heavy Eritrean losses (unverified). en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Civilians killed | 66 | – | 14 killed in a drone strike on a school in Alamata (22 September, BBC/Al Jazeera) and at least 52 killed in Alamata after federal forces retook it (BBC, 30 September). bbc.com ↗ |
| Wounded | 260 | – | Government figure; 22 injured in the Alamata school strike and 13 in an August drone strike on Mekelle (HRW). hrw.org ↗ |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | 338 | – | Verified minimum since 23 September 2026 only; earlier 2026 TPLF-ENDF clashes added further unquantified deaths. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Internally displaced | – | – | UN (10 October 2026): hostilities are displacing people across central, north-western and eastern Tigray; verified figures not yet available. Ethiopia had ~4.5 million IDPs from earlier conflicts and disasters before this war (IOM). news.un.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | – | – | No new refugee figures published. news.un.org ↗ |
Intensity classification: Provisional. Verified counts so far: the Ethiopian government reported 272 killed and 260 wounded in the first weeks; at least 66 civilians were killed in Alamata (14 in a drone strike on a school on 22 September, 52+ after the town changed hands). Full-scale fighting across Tigray, Afar and Amhara with drone strikes, the capture of Mekelle and reported Eritrean incursions makes a toll above 1,000 likely, but no independent count exists..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Northern Ethiopia war (federal government vs TPLF-led EPFAS coalition; Eritrea involvement)?
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Amhara regional forces and riot police, Tigray Peace Force (pro-government Tigrayan militia), Afar regional forces); against Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS) (Tigray People's Liberation Front / Tigray Defence Forces, Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz armed groups, …), supported by Eritrea (alleged by Ethiopia; denied), Sudan and Egypt (alleged by Ethiopia; denied); against Eritrea (Eritrean Defence Forces).
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 338+ killed as of 16 October 2026. Ethiopian government figure of 272 killed (plus 260 wounded) in the first weeks, plus at least 66 civilians killed in Alamata; figures come from the parties and are unverified. The 2020-2022 Tigray war is separately estimated at ~600,000 deaths. Civilian deaths are put at 66+. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Northern Ethiopia war (federal government vs TPLF-led EPFAS coalition; Eritrea involvement) still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — On 23 September 2026 a new coalition of seven armed groups led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and including the Amhara Fano and Oromo Liberation Army launched an offensive against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, seizing Tigray's airports and the regional capital Mekelle. Federal forces retook Mekelle, Adigrat, Adwa, Aksum and the border town of Zalambessa by mid-October; Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties on 1 October and each accuses the other of starting a war, with Eritrean troops reported inside Tigray and Ethiopian tanks on the border.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 23 September 2026, but the underlying conflict dates back to 2020 — 27 days ago.
Sources
- Wikipedia — 2026 Ethiopian offensive en.wikipedia.org
- UN News — UN chief gravely concerned by renewed fighting (10 Oct 2026) news.un.org
- Al Jazeera — Ethiopian forces expand control in Tigray (15 Oct 2026) aljazeera.com
- Crisis Group — Arresting a dangerous descent back to war in northern Ethiopia crisisgroup.org
- HRW — Indiscriminate airstrike in Tigray (Sept 2026) hrw.org
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker — Ethiopia cfr.org
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Glostats. (2026). Northern Ethiopia war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026). Retrieved October 20, 2026, from https://glostats.com/conflicts/ethiopia-northern-war-2026/<a href="https://glostats.com/conflicts/ethiopia-northern-war-2026/">Northern Ethiopia war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026)</a> — GlostatsFigures on this page may be quoted, charted or republished as long as the page is credited with a link. Terms · Download the data as CSV · Embed a live counter.
This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-20. How this tracker works.