Key figures
Who is fighting
Philippines
- Armed Forces of the Philippines (Philippine Army infantry divisions)
- Philippine National Police
- Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units (CAFGU)
- NTF-ELCAC
- United States (security assistance)
Communist Party of the Philippines – New People's Army – National Democratic Front
- New People's Army regional commands (Negros, Eastern Visayas, Southern Mindanao, etc.)
- Underground mass organisations
- None (overseas solidarity networks reported)
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
The CPP was refounded in 1968 and its armed wing, the NPA, in March 1969, drawing on the earlier Hukbalahap rebellion. The insurgency peaked in the 1980s at around 25,000 fighters, then declined after the fall of Marcos, internal purges and repeated peace talks under the National Democratic Front. Talks under President Duterte collapsed in 2017; the government designated the CPP-NPA a terrorist organisation and created the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC), combining military operations with amnesty and 'localised' peace programmes.
Under President Marcos Jr. the military has claimed steady dismantling of guerrilla fronts: from about 2,200 fighters in 2023 to 1,111 in November 2024, with only four 'weakened' fronts remaining. Exploratory talks with the NDF produced a joint statement in Oslo in November 2023 but no formal negotiations. The CPP disputes the military's numbers and the NPA continues ambushes on isolated patrols and killings of suspected informants.
In 2026 the insurgency's remaining strongholds are southern and northern Negros, Samar and pockets of Mindanao. The Toboso encounter of 19 April 2026 killed the Northern Negros Front commander Roger Fabillar and others; autopsies and a fact-finding mission alleged indiscriminate fire and civilian deaths, which the army denies. The US embassy warned Americans about NPA recruitment after two US citizens died there. The NTF-ELCAC declared the NPA 'totally defeated' in Negros in May 2026, yet the NPA claimed three 'punitive' killings in southern Negros in October 2026.
Recent developments
- 12 October 2026NPA claims responsibility for killing three civilians in southern Negros in nine days, accusing them of rape, intelligence work and a farmer's killing. source ↗
- 18 September 2026Four NPA guerrillas surrender with heavy weapons in Eastern and Northern Samar. source ↗
- 15 August 2026Civil-society fact-finding mission concludes the military 'fired indiscriminately' at Toboso and killed nine civilians; the army maintains all dead were combatants. source ↗
- 31 May 2026Three more NPA members surrender as the Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga) committee disintegrates. source ↗
- 24 May 2026NTF-ELCAC executive calls the Negros losses an 'irreversible collapse' of the remaining communist armed infrastructure. source ↗
- 19 April 2026Toboso clash, the deadliest NPA–military encounter in over four years; US Embassy issues an alert on NPA recruitment of Americans. source ↗
Timeline
- 29 March 1969New People's Army founded as the armed wing of the re-established Communist Party of the Philippines.
- 25 February 1986Fall of Marcos; the NPA peaks at about 25,000 fighters in the late 1980s before internal purges and splits.
- 23 November 2017President Duterte terminates peace talks with the NDF and later designates the CPP-NPA a terrorist organisation; NTF-ELCAC created in 2018.
- 28 November 2023Government and NDF sign an Oslo joint statement agreeing to explore a renewed peace process.
- 19 November 2024AFP says NPA strength is down to 1,111 fighters and four weakened fronts.
- 19 April 2026Toboso encounter in Negros Occidental: army says 19 NPA killed; CPP and a fact-finding mission say 10 rebels and 9 civilians, including two Americans.
- 24 May 2026NTF-ELCAC declares the NPA 'totally defeated' in Negros; Caraga front also reported disintegrating.
- 12 October 2026NPA claims three 'punitive' killings of civilians in southern Negros between 4 and 12 October.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 40,000 | 43,000 | Commonly cited estimates of about 40,000+ deaths since 1969 (combatants and civilians); no authoritative cumulative tally exists. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Combatants killed | – | – | No consolidated current figure. |
| Civilians killed | – | – | No consolidated figure; the NPA admitted killing three civilians in southern Negros on 4–12 Oct 2026 and a fact-finding mission says nine civilians died at Toboso in April 2026. brigadanews.ph ↗ |
| Wounded | – | – | Not consolidated. |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | 25 | – | Lower bound from documented incidents: 10–19 killed at Toboso (19 Apr 2026), 3 civilians killed by the NPA in Negros (Oct 2026) and other encounters reported by PSA Intelligence; no agency publishes an annual total. reports.psaintelligence.com ↗ |
| Internally displaced | 653 | 653 | Residents evacuated from Salamanca and San Jose, Toboso, during the April 2026 clashes; no wider displacement figure. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | – | – | Not applicable. |
Intensity classification: No consolidated 2026 death count is published. PSA Intelligence recorded 166 NPA-related violent incidents in 2025 (131 of them armed encounters); the single 19 April 2026 Toboso clash killed 10–19 people and smaller encounters, surrenders and NPA 'punitive' killings continue, so the 12-month toll is in the dozens..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Philippines — communist insurgency (CPP–NPA)?
Philippines (Armed Forces of the Philippines (Philippine Army infantry divisions), Philippine National Police, Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units (CAFGU), NTF-ELCAC), supported by United States (security assistance); against Communist Party of the Philippines – New People's Army – National Democratic Front (New People's Army regional commands (Negros, Eastern Visayas, Southern Mindanao, etc.), Underground mass organisations), supported by None (overseas solidarity networks reported).
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 40,000–43,000 killed as of 12 October 2026. Commonly cited estimates of about 40,000+ deaths since 1969 (combatants and civilians); no authoritative cumulative tally exists. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Philippines — communist insurgency (CPP–NPA) still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Low intensity — Asia's longest-running communist insurgency, waged by the Communist Party of the Philippines' New People's Army (NPA) since 1969, is at its weakest point: the military put NPA strength at about 1,100 fighters and four weakened guerrilla fronts in late 2024 and declared the Negros and Caraga fronts 'collapsed' in 2026. Violence persists at low level, mainly in Negros, Samar and parts of Mindanao; the deadliest clash in years occurred at Toboso, Negros Occidental, on 19 April 2026, where the army said 19 rebels died while a civil-society inquiry found 10 rebels and 9 civilians, including two US citizens, were killed.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 29 March 1969, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1942 — 57 years, 6 months ago.
Sources
- PSA Intelligence — Philippines annual communist insurgency report 2026 reports.psaintelligence.com
- Wikipedia — Toboso encounter en.wikipedia.org
- South China Morning Post — are the communist rebels defeated? (Mar 2026) scmp.com
- GMA News — AFP: NPA down to 4 weakened fronts, 1,100 rebels (Nov 2024) gmanetwork.com
- Wikipedia — Communist rebellion in the Philippines en.wikipedia.org
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