MyanmarKey figures
Who is fighting
Myanmar military government (Tatmadaw / State Administration Council, since April 2026 the Min Aung Hlaing presidency)
- Myanmar Army, Air Force and Navy
- Myanmar Police Force
- Border Guard Forces
- Pyusawhti militias
- Pa-O National Army
- Karen National Army
- Shanni Nationalities Army (allied in Sagaing)
- Russia (arms, military cooperation agreement Feb 2026)
- China (arms, diplomatic backing; brokered MNDAA/TNLA ceasefires)
- India (reported)
National Unity Government (NUG), People's Defence Forces and allied ethnic armed organizations
- People's Defence Force (PDF)
- Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
- Karen National Union / KNLA
- Karenni Nationalities Defence Force and Karenni Army
- Chin Brotherhood and Chinland Council (merged Chin People's Army, Jan 2026)
- All Burma Students' Democratic Front
- Spring Revolution Alliance (19 groups, formed Dec 2025)
- No state sponsor; diaspora funding (reported)
Arakan Army (United League of Arakan)
- Arakan Army
- Allied PDF units in Bago and Ayeyarwady
- None confirmed
Northern Shan EAOs under Chinese-brokered ceasefires
- Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) — ceasefire Jan 2025, withdrew from Lashio Apr 2025
- Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — ceasefire 29 Oct 2025, ceded Mogok and Mongmit; attacked by MNDAA at Kutkai Mar 2026
- United Wa State Army (neutral; cut supplies to MNDAA/TNLA Aug 2025)
- China (pressure and mediation)
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
Myanmar has seen ethnic insurgencies since independence in 1948, but the current war began when the Tatmadaw overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government on 1 February 2021. Mass protests were crushed, and by mid-2021 a National Unity Government (NUG) formed People's Defence Forces (PDF) that allied with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) such as the Kachin Independence Army, Karen National Union, Karenni forces and Chin groups.
The war's turning point was Operation 1027, launched on 27 October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (Arakan Army, MNDAA and TNLA), which captured dozens of towns in northern Shan State, including the regional command at Lashio in August 2024. The Arakan Army seized almost all of Rakhine State by late 2024. The junta responded with forced conscription from 2024 and an escalating air campaign.
From 2025 the momentum partly reversed. China brokered ceasefires that led the MNDAA to hand Lashio back (April 2025) and the TNLA to cede Mogok and Mongmit (October 2025); the United Wa State Army cut off supplies to those groups. The military retook Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Thabeikkyin, Mogok and Tagaung, and recaptured Falam in Chin State in April 2026. A magnitude 7.7–7.9 earthquake on 28 March 2025 killed more than 3,700 people in Sagaing and Mandalay; air strikes continued through the declared ceasefires.
The junta held a three-phase election (28 December 2025, 11 and 25 January 2026) in 263 of 330 townships; the military-backed USDP won 339 of 586 seats and parliament elected Min Aung Hlaing president on 3 April 2026 (sworn in 10 April), with General Ye Win Oo taking over as commander-in-chief. The UN found the military killed at least 702 civilians in the election period. Resistance groups rejected the new president's 100-day disarmament ultimatum. Air strikes continued to cause mass-casualty events in 2026 (Ann prison, Kyauktaw), and the Arakan Army's advance on Sittwe is the main front to watch.
Recent developments
- 8 October 2026United States opens direct talks with the military-led government while keeping sanctions on Min Aung Hlaing. source ↗
- 28 September 2026Air strike on Kyauktaw, Rakhine, kills about 50 people, one of the deadliest single strikes of the year. source ↗
- 4 September 2026Junta launches an offensive out of Sittwe; the Arakan Army claims about 200 junta troops killed between 4 and 11 September near Khamaungtaw and Ywarbo, 20 km north of the city. Sittwe remains the only junta-held settlement in northern Rakhine. source ↗
- 13 July 2026OCHA reports nearly 3.8 million people displaced and 16.2 million in need; the 2026 response plan is 43% funded. source ↗
- 1 July 2026ACLED's count of conflict deaths since the coup passes 100,000 (100,114); ACLED describes Myanmar as the world's most fragmented conflict with over 1,200 armed groups. source ↗
- 22 June 2026UN Human Rights Office report finds the military killed at least 702 civilians during the election period (Aug 2025–Jan 2026), 505 of them in air attacks. source ↗
- 15 June 2026Fighting between the Arakan Army and the military reaches Naryikan village about a mile from Sittwe; AA–military battles account for 40% of June's battle fatalities (ACLED). source ↗
- 30 April 2026Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence is commuted to house arrest; on 25 April the military recaptured Falam in Chin State after air strikes. source ↗
Timeline
- 1 February 2021Military coup deposes the elected NLD government; nationwide protests are violently suppressed.
- 5 May 2021National Unity Government announces the People's Defence Force; armed resistance spreads to Sagaing, Magway and Chin.
- 27 October 2023Three Brotherhood Alliance launches Operation 1027 in northern Shan State, capturing dozens of towns over the following months.
- 10 February 2024Junta activates the conscription law; forced recruitment begins in April 2024.
- 3 August 2024MNDAA captures Lashio, seat of the military's North-Eastern Command, the first regional command to fall.
- 20 December 2024Arakan Army seizes the Western Command headquarters at Ann; it now controls almost all of Rakhine except Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.
- 20 January 2025China brokers an MNDAA–junta ceasefire; the MNDAA lowers its flags in Lashio on 21 April 2025 and the junta administration returns.
- 28 March 2025Magnitude 7.7–7.9 earthquake on the Sagaing Fault kills more than 3,700 people; declared ceasefires are ignored and air strikes continue (Depayin school strike kills about 50 on 12 May).
- 15 July 2025Junta recaptures Nawnghkio, then Thabeikkyin (23 Jul), Kyaukme (early Oct) and Hsipaw (mid-Oct) as the TNLA retreats.
- 31 July 2025State Administration Council is dissolved and power passes to the National Defence and Security Council ahead of elections.
- 29 October 2025TNLA signs a Chinese-brokered ceasefire and agrees to cede Mogok and Mongmit.
- 28 December 2025First of three election phases (others on 11 and 25 Jan 2026) held in 263 of 330 townships; USDP wins 339 of 586 seats.
- 8 March 2026Air strike on a prison in Ann Township reportedly kills about 116 prisoners of war held by the Arakan Army.
- 3 April 2026Parliament elects Min Aung Hlaing president (sworn in 10 April); Ye Win Oo becomes commander-in-chief; resistance groups reject a 100-day disarmament ultimatum issued on 20 April.
- 28 September 2026Military air strike on Kyauktaw, Rakhine State, kills about 50 people.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 100,114 | 100,114 | ACLED count of conflict-related deaths (all parties, incl. civilians) from 1 Feb 2021 to end of June 2026, compiled from media reports; no official toll exists and the true figure is probably higher. france24.com ↗ |
| Combatants killed | – | – | No reliable breakdown of combatant deaths is published; ACLED's total includes combatants of all sides. france24.com ↗ |
| Civilians killed | 6,087 | – | AAPP documented 6,087 civilians killed by the military through 31 Dec 2024 (a verified undercount). The UN separately verified at least 702 civilians killed by the military between 1 Aug 2025 and 31 Jan 2026, 505 of them in air attacks; ACLED counted over 450 civilians killed in mass-killing events in the first half of 2026 alone. nationthailand.com ↗ |
| Wounded | – | – | No aggregate figure published. |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | 13,700 | 13,700 | ACLED recorded over 13,700 conflict-related deaths between 1 Jan and 28 Nov 2025 (its most recent published annual figure); a full 12-month figure to October 2026 has not been published but is of the same order, as ACLED's cumulative count rose from roughly 89,000–96,000 (1 Jan 2026) to 100,114 (1 Jul 2026). acleddata.com ↗ |
| Internally displaced | 3,600,000 | 3,793,800 | OCHA estimated more than 3.6 million displaced (March 2026) rising to nearly 3.8 million by July 2026; UNHCR figure of 3,793,800 IDPs as of 29 June 2026. 16.2 million people need humanitarian aid (2026 HNRP). myanmar.un.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | 299,000 | 1,600,000 | Low: people who fled to neighbouring countries since the coup (UNHCR, May 2026). High: all refugees and asylum-seekers from Myanmar in neighbouring countries including roughly a million pre-coup Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh (UNHCR data cited by UNICEF, June 2026). unicef.org ↗ |
Intensity classification: ACLED: more than 13,700 conflict-related deaths recorded 1 Jan–28 Nov 2025; cumulative 100,114 deaths since the February 2021 coup (ACLED release of 1 July 2026). Myanmar was ACLED's second most conflict-affected country in 2025..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Myanmar civil war (military government vs NUG/PDF and ethnic armed organizations)?
Myanmar military government (Tatmadaw / State Administration Council, since April 2026 the Min Aung Hlaing presidency) (Myanmar Army, Air Force and Navy, Myanmar Police Force, Border Guard Forces, Pyusawhti militias, …), supported by Russia (arms, military cooperation agreement Feb 2026), China (arms, diplomatic backing; brokered MNDAA/TNLA ceasefires), India (reported); against National Unity Government (NUG), People's Defence Forces and allied ethnic armed organizations (People's Defence Force (PDF), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union / KNLA, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force and Karenni Army, …), supported by No state sponsor; diaspora funding (reported); against Arakan Army (United League of Arakan) (Arakan Army, Allied PDF units in Bago and Ayeyarwady), supported by None confirmed; against Northern Shan EAOs under Chinese-brokered ceasefires (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) — ceasefire Jan 2025, withdrew from Lashio Apr 2025, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — ceasefire 29 Oct 2025, ceded Mogok and Mongmit; attacked by MNDAA at Kutkai Mar 2026, United Wa State Army (neutral; cut supplies to MNDAA/TNLA Aug 2025)), supported by China (pressure and mediation).
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 100,114 killed as of 13 July 2026. ACLED count of conflict-related deaths (all parties, incl. civilians) from 1 Feb 2021 to end of June 2026, compiled from media reports; no official toll exists and the true figure is probably higher. Civilian deaths are put at 6,087+. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Myanmar civil war (military government vs NUG/PDF and ethnic armed organizations) still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — The military seized power on 1 February 2021 and has since fought a nationwide war against the National Unity Government's People's Defence Forces and long-established ethnic armed organizations. By October 2026 the conflict is a grinding stalemate: the military, rebranded as a civilian-fronted government under President Min Aung Hlaing after restricted elections in December 2025–January 2026, has clawed back towns in Shan, Mandalay, Sagaing, Chin and Karenni areas with Chinese diplomatic help and relentless air strikes, while the Arakan Army holds almost all of Rakhine State and is besieging the state capital Sittwe.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 1 February 2021, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1948 — 5 years, 8 months ago.
Sources
- ACLED — Conflict Watchlist 2026: Myanmar acleddata.com
- France 24 / ACLED — death toll passes 100,000 (1 Jul 2026) france24.com
- OCHA Myanmar Humanitarian Update No. 52 (Jul 2026) myanmar.un.org
- UN OHCHR report on the election period (via Nation Thailand) nationthailand.com
- CFR — How the coup turned Myanmar into Asia's deadliest conflict cfr.org
- Wikipedia — Myanmar civil war (2021–present) en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia — 2025–26 Myanmar general election en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia — Battle of Sittwe en.wikipedia.org
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Glostats. (2026). Myanmar civil war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026). Retrieved October 20, 2026, from https://glostats.com/conflicts/myanmar-civil-war/<a href="https://glostats.com/conflicts/myanmar-civil-war/">Myanmar civil war — Casualties, Forces & Timeline (2026)</a> — GlostatsFigures on this page may be quoted, charted or republished as long as the page is credited with a link. Terms · Download the data as CSV · Embed a live counter.
This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-20. How this tracker works.