Key figures
Who is fighting
Government of Ethiopia
- Ethiopian National Defense Force
- Oromia regional special forces and police
Oromo Liberation Army (OLA / OLF-Shane)
- OLA (Jaal Marroo faction)
- TPLF and Fano (allied since September 2026)
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
The OLF has fought for Oromo self-determination since 1973. After Abiy Ahmed, himself Oromo, took power in 2018 the OLF returned from exile, but its armed wing refused to disarm and became the OLA, active mainly in Wollega, Guji and Borana. The group is blamed for massacres of Amhara civilians (Gawa Qanqa 2020, Tole 2022, where over 200 were killed), while the army and Oromia regional forces are accused of extrajudicial killings and drone strikes.
Peace talks in Tanzania in 2023 failed; a faction led by Senay Negasa signed an agreement in December 2024 and moved into camps, but Jaal Marroo's mainstream OLA rejected it. In 2026 the OLA clashed with security forces in East Wollega on election day and attacked mostly Orthodox Christian civilians in Aseko woreda, Arsi, on 31 May-1 June. On 20 September 2026 it joined the EPFAS coalition with the TPLF and Fano, though its contribution to the northern offensive is unclear.
Recent developments
- 21 September 2026OLA named among the seven armed groups forming an anti-government alliance. source ↗
- 1 June 2026ACLED records nine OLA-security force clashes on election day, mostly in East Wollega zone. source ↗
- 31 May 2026OLA fighters attack mostly Orthodox Christian civilians in Aseko woreda, Arsi zone, over two days, destroying more than 200 properties. source ↗
Timeline
- 6 August 2018OLF returns from exile under a peace deal; its armed wing refuses to disarm.
- 1 January 2019The OLA formally splits from the OLF and resumes guerrilla operations.
- 1 November 2020Gawa Qanqa massacre of Amhara civilians, attributed to the OLA.
- 11 August 2021OLA announces an alliance with the TPLF during the Tigray war.
- 18 June 2022Tole massacre: more than 200 Amhara civilians killed in West Wollega.
- 3 May 2023Peace talks in Tanzania collapse; fighting resumes.
- 1 December 2024OLA faction led by Senay Negasa signs a peace agreement with the government.
- 1 June 2026OLA fights nine clashes with security forces on election day and attacks civilians in Aseko, Arsi.
- 20 September 2026OLA joins the TPLF- and Fano-led EPFAS coalition against the government.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 5,623 | – | ACLED-recorded deaths August 2018-December 2022; deaths in 2023-2026 are additional and not aggregated. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Combatants killed | – | – | Not published; OLA claims are unverified. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Civilians killed | – | – | No aggregate; single massacres have killed 200+ (Tole, June 2022) and 48 (November 2024, per the rights commission). en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Wounded | – | – | Not recorded. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | – | – | Not published in any source retrieved; ACLED July 2026 overview documents continuing clashes and attacks on civilians. acleddata.com ↗ |
| Internally displaced | – | – | Hundreds of thousands displaced within Oromia over the conflict; no current figure retrieved. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | – | – | Not separately recorded. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
Intensity classification: Probably higher. ACLED recorded 5,623 deaths in the conflict from August 2018 to December 2022; no comparable figure for 2025-2026 was retrieved. ACLED documented nine OLA-security force clashes on 1 June 2026 and OLA attacks on civilians in Arsi zone that destroyed over 200 properties, so the 12-month toll certainly exceeds 25 and may exceed 1,000..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Oromia (OLA) insurgency, Ethiopia?
Government of Ethiopia (Ethiopian National Defense Force, Oromia regional special forces and police); against Oromo Liberation Army (OLA / OLF-Shane) (OLA (Jaal Marroo faction)), supported by TPLF and Fano (allied since September 2026).
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 5,623+ killed as of 30 June 2026. ACLED-recorded deaths August 2018-December 2022; deaths in 2023-2026 are additional and not aggregated. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Oromia (OLA) insurgency, Ethiopia still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — The Oromo Liberation Army, which split from the Oromo Liberation Front in 2019, wages a low-level rural insurgency across western and southern Oromia marked by attacks on officials, Amhara civilians and security forces, and by army counter-operations. A faction signed a peace deal in December 2024, but the main OLA under Jaal Marroo fought on, attacked on election day in June 2026 and in September 2026 joined the TPLF- and Fano-led coalition against the government.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 6 August 2018, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1973 — 8 years, 2 months ago.
Sources
- ACLED — Africa Overview July 2026 acleddata.com
- Wikipedia — OLA insurgency en.wikipedia.org
- Crisis Group — Ethiopia crisisgroup.org
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Glostats. (2026). Oromia (OLA) insurgency, Ethiopia (2026). Retrieved October 20, 2026, from https://glostats.com/conflicts/ethiopia-oromia-ola-insurgency/<a href="https://glostats.com/conflicts/ethiopia-oromia-ola-insurgency/">Oromia (OLA) insurgency, Ethiopia (2026)</a> — GlostatsFigures on this page may be quoted, charted or republished as long as the page is credited with a link. Terms · Download the data as CSV · Embed a live counter.
This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-20. How this tracker works.