MexicoKey figures
Who is fighting
Mexican state
- Mexican Army and Navy (SEDENA/SEMAR)
- National Guard (about 107,000, under military command since 2024)
- State and municipal police (about 368,000)
- Attorney General's Office
- United States (intelligence, DEA/FBI cooperation, extraditions; naval strikes at sea)
Cartels and allied criminal groups
- Sinaloa Cartel (Chapitos and Mayiza factions, at war since Sept 2024)
- Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
- Cártel del Noreste
- Gulf Cartel
- La Familia Michoacana
- Cárteles Unidos
- Pueblos Unidos (Morelos) and regional gangs
- None (arms trafficked from the United States; Chinese precursor suppliers reported)
Self-defence groups
- Autodefensas and community police in Michoacán and Guerrero
- None
Force sizes are estimates of personnel or fighters, usually from IISS, government statements or specialist reporting; irregular forces are especially hard to count. "(reported)" marks external support that the backer disputes or has not confirmed.
Background
Mexico's 'drug war' began when President Felipe Calderón deployed the army against the cartels in December 2006. The fragmentation of the old cartels into dozens of groups made violence worse: homicides peaked at over 33,000 a year in 2018–2020 and more than 400,000 people have been killed and over 100,000 disappeared since 2006. The cartels now run extortion, fuel theft, migrant smuggling and fentanyl production alongside cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking.
The current landscape is dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG. The July 2024 arrest in the US of Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada split Sinaloa into the 'Chapitos' and 'Mayiza' factions, whose war has made Culiacán one of the most violent cities in the country. CJNG, led by Nemesio 'El Mencho' Oseguera, expanded into about half of Mexico's states. Smaller groups such as the Northeast Cartel, Gulf Cartel, Familia Michoacana and Cárteles Unidos fight over Tamaulipas, Guerrero, Michoacán and Guanajuato.
President Sheinbaum, in office since October 2024, combined record arrests and seizures under Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch with the extradition of dozens of capos to the US; official homicide averages fell from 86.9 a day (Sept 2024) to 42.2 (Sept 2026), though critics question the data and note rising disappearances. On 22 February 2026 a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, aided by US intelligence, killed El Mencho; CJNG retaliation included arson, a car bomb and a prison break, and left 25 National Guard members, 2 civilians and about 32 cartel gunmen dead. Washington designated the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG as foreign terrorist organizations in February 2025 and President Trump said in January 2026 that US forces would 'start hitting land'; no US strike on Mexican soil has been reported, and Mexico has rejected any such action.
Recent developments
- 13 October 2026SESNSP reports 42.2 intentional homicide victims a day in September 2026 (vs 86.9 in Sept 2024); seven states account for half of killings. US Treasury sanctions Cártel del Noreste figures the same day. source ↗
- 12 October 2026Pueblos Unidos gang takes three Morelos prosecutors' employees hostage and frees its leader in exchange; Mexican forces arrest an alleged CJNG leader in Zapopan on 6 October. source ↗
- 24 September 2026Ecuadorian police with US special operations forces and the DEA arrest over 30 CJNG members in Ecuador; 'Don Flaco', an alleged fentanyl-precursor trafficker, arrested in Mexico City with FBI/DEA support (22 Sept). source ↗
- 11 August 2026México Evalúa: lethal violence rate 22.1 per 100,000 in H1 2026, down from 27.8 a year earlier; disappearances 3.6 per 100,000. source ↗
- 3 August 2026INEGI publishes preliminary 2025 homicide data: 27,989 deaths, 21.4 per 100,000. source ↗
- 12 April 2026Two-year-old boy dies of burns from a February attack on a convenience store in Valle de Chalco, the unrest's second civilian death. source ↗
Timeline
- 11 December 2006President Calderón sends the army into Michoacán, starting the militarised 'drug war'.
- 31 December 2018Homicides peak at 33,341 for the year; the figure stays above 30,000 through 2023.
- 25 July 2024'El Mayo' Zambada detained in the US; the Sinaloa Cartel splits into warring Chapitos and Mayiza factions (Culiacán war from Sept 2024).
- 1 October 2024Claudia Sheinbaum takes office; National Guard placed under army command; Omar García Harfuch leads the security strategy.
- 20 February 2025United States designates the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG and other cartels as foreign terrorist organizations; Mexico extradites 29 capos to the US a week later.
- 30 June 2025Irapuato shooting kills 12 at a festival, one of several mass killings in Guanajuato.
- 9 January 2026President Trump says US forces will 'start hitting land' against cartels; Sheinbaum rejects any strike on Mexican territory.
- 22 February 2026Mexican forces kill CJNG leader 'El Mencho' in Tapalpa, Jalisco; cartel sets 252 roadblocks in 20 states, attacks prisons and businesses; 25 National Guard members killed.
- 3 August 2026INEGI reports 27,989 homicides for 2025, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 (25.8 in 2024).
- 13 October 2026SESNSP: September 2026 average of 42.2 homicide victims a day, the lowest September since 2015.
Casualties and displacement in detail
| Measure | Low | High | What the figure covers · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total killed (cumulative) | 350,000 | 400,000 | Total homicides in Mexico 2006–2021 (all causes, INEGI-based estimates); not all are cartel-related. INEGI: 27,989 homicides in 2025; over 30,000 a year in 2018–2023. Missing persons exceed 100,000. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Combatants killed | 4,986 | 4,986 | Soldiers (743 killed, 137 missing), police (4,038) and community police (66) killed since 2006 (compiled, incomplete); 25 National Guard members died in the February 2026 unrest alone. en.wikipedia.org ↗ |
| Civilians killed | – | – | No civilian/combatant distinction in Mexican homicide data. |
| Wounded | – | – | Not tracked as a conflict statistic. |
| Deaths in the last 12 months | 15,000 | 27,989 | Homicides, not battle deaths. High: INEGI's 27,989 homicides in calendar 2025 (death certificates). Low: approximate run-rate of SESNSP victim counts for Oct 2025–Sep 2026 given a daily average that fell to about 41–42 by August–September 2026 (about 1,250 a month); SESNSP has not published a 12-month total. Organized-crime-linked share is unknown but was about 18,000 of all homicides in 2024 (Mexico Peace Index). riotimesonline.com ↗ |
| Internally displaced | – | – | Internal displacement by criminal violence is estimated in the hundreds of thousands (CMDPDH) but no current official figure exists. cfr.org ↗ |
| Refugees abroad | – | – | Not applicable (Mexican asylum claims abroad are counted separately). |
Intensity classification: Methodological caveat: Mexico's violence is measured by homicide statistics, not battle-death counts. INEGI recorded 27,989 homicides in 2025 (21.4 per 100,000); SESNSP prosecutor data show about 42 intentional-homicide victims per day in September 2026 (roughly 1,250 a month), down 52% from September 2024. Not all homicides are cartel-related — the Mexico Peace Index attributed roughly 18,000 of 2024's homicides to organized crime — so a UCDP-style classification would still be 'major war' (well over 10,000 organized-crime killings a year)..
Countries affected
Frequently asked questions
Who is fighting in the Mexico — cartel and organized-crime violence?
Mexican state (Mexican Army and Navy (SEDENA/SEMAR), National Guard (about 107,000, under military command since 2024), State and municipal police (about 368,000), Attorney General's Office), supported by United States (intelligence, DEA/FBI cooperation, extraditions; naval strikes at sea); against Cartels and allied criminal groups (Sinaloa Cartel (Chapitos and Mayiza factions, at war since Sept 2024), Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Cártel del Noreste, Gulf Cartel, …), supported by None (arms trafficked from the United States; Chinese precursor suppliers reported); against Self-defence groups (Autodefensas and community police in Michoacán and Guerrero), supported by None.
How many people have been killed?
Estimates range from 350,000–400,000 killed as of 30 September 2026. Total homicides in Mexico 2006–2021 (all causes, INEGI-based estimates); not all are cartel-related. INEGI: 27,989 homicides in 2025; over 30,000 a year in 2018–2023. Missing persons exceed 100,000. Figures come from the sources listed on this page and differ in method; see the caveats above.
Is the Mexico — cartel and organized-crime violence still ongoing in 2026?
Status as of 19 October 2026: Active fighting — Mexico's rival cartels — above all the Sinaloa Cartel, in internal civil war since the 2024 capture of 'El Mayo' Zambada, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) — fight each other and the state across roughly a third of the country, producing tens of thousands of homicides and disappearances a year. Official homicides have fallen sharply under President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy, but 2026 brought the biggest cartel backlash in years when Mexican forces killed CJNG boss 'El Mencho' on 22 February, triggering 252 roadblocks in 20 states and killing 25 National Guard members. The United States has designated the major cartels as terrorist organizations, struck alleged drug boats at sea and threatened land strikes, which Mexico rejects.
When did it start?
The current phase began on 11 December 2006, but the underlying conflict dates back to 1980s — 19 years, 10 months ago.
Sources
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker — Criminal violence in Mexico cfr.org
- El Universal — SESNSP September 2026 homicide data eluniversal.com.mx
- Rio Times — INEGI 2025 and SESNSP 2026 figures riotimesonline.com
- Wikipedia — 2026 Mexico cartel unrest en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia — Mexican drug war en.wikipedia.org
- Institute for Economics and Peace — Mexico Peace Index 2025 visionofhumanity.org
- Quincy Institute — A smarter way to fight Mexico's cartels quincyinst.org
More conflicts
Ecuador — 'internal armed conflict' against criminal gangs
Haiti gang war (Viv Ansanm and other gangs vs police, Gang Suppression Force and self-defence groups)
United States campaign against alleged drug traffickers and intervention in Venezuela (Operation Southern Spear)
Colombian armed conflict (ELN, FARC dissidents, Clan del Golfo vs state; Catatumbo war)This page summarises publicly available reporting and does not take sides. Casualty and force figures are estimates compiled on 19 October 2026; see each figure's source for its method and date. Page generated 2026-10-19. How this tracker works.